A
PROJECT REPORT
ON
“RISK MANAGEMENT IN COSNTRUCTION
PROJECT”
UNDERTAKEN AT
“PATSON ENGINEERING,GUJARAT”
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF
POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN CONSTRUCTION
& INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT
MIT SCHOOL OF DISTANCE EDUCATION,
PUNE.
GUIDED BY
PROF. RAJAT MISHRA
SUBMITTED BY
Mr.ABHISHEK SHARMA
Registration No.2012004226
MIT SCHOOL OF DISTANCE EDUCATION
PUNE-411 038
YEAR 2013-2015
DECLARATION
I here by declare that this project report entitled “RISK
MANAGEMENT IN COSNTRUCTION PROJECT” is a bonafide record of the
project work carried out by myself during the academic year 2013-2015, in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the award of POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN
CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT (PGDICM) of MIT
School of Distance Education, Pune.
This work has not been undertaken or submitted elsewhere in connection
with any other academic course.
ABHISHEK SHARMA
(Name of Student and Signature)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to
Sh.Subhash Patel for giving me an opportunity to do my summer training in the esteem
organization and it has indeed been a great learning and enjoyable experience.
I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude and profound thanks to all staff
members of (M/s Patson Engineering, Jmangar) for their kind support and cooperation
which helped me in gaining lots of knowledge and experience to do my project work
successfully.
I would like to acknowledge my sincere gratitude to Professor Rajat Mishra, as my
Project Guide for helping me in this project.
At last but not least, I am thankful to my Family and Friends for their moral support,
endurance and encouragement during the course of the project.
ABHISHEK SHARMA
(Students’ name and Signature)
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction
1.1 General
1.2 Problem Identification
1.3 Aim & Objective
1.4 Scope of Work
2 Literature Review
3 Study Area
3.1 Description of study area
3.2 Scope of work for propose grade separator
3.2.1 RCC Box at Gurudwara and Thaltej Junction
3.2.2
Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej Junction from Gandhinagar side
using Gabion walls
3.2.3
Depressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junction
using Gabion walls
3.2.4
Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara junction from Sarkhej side
using Gabion walls
3.2.5 At Grade slip roads on both side
3.2.6 Storm water drainage to dispose rainwater into nearby waterway
3.2.7 Road furniture
3.3 Site photographs
3.4 Risk Management Process
3.5 Risk Management cycle
3.6 Risk analysis methodology
3.6.1 Qualitative Risk analysis
3.6.2 Quantitative Risk analysis
4 Data Collection
4.1 Traffic data collection
4.2 Projected traffic
4.3 Traffic movement at different Junction
4.4 Traffic Management plan
4.5 Accident data
5 Quality analysis of prpblem
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 2
5.1 Risk indentification
5.2 Risk Assessment
5.3 Entering assessent into risk register
5.4 Risk Analysis
5.4.1 Risk includes threats and opportunities
5.4.2 Probability and impact rating
5.5 Performing qualitative risk
5.6 Risk Matrix
5.7 Risk Categorization
5.8 Risk Monitoring
5.9 Response towards Risk
6 Conclusion
7 Reference
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Table Description Page No.
4.1 Details of Traffic direction 21
4.2 Deatails of Traffic direction 22
4.3 Projected future traffic 23
4.4 Details of traffic movement 24
4.5 Accident data on SG Highway
27
5.1 Risk Assessment 29
5.2 Risk analysis of different events 30
5.3 Risk Matrix 31
5.4 Risk Score 32
5.5 Risk categorization 32
5.6. Response towards risk 38
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Figure Description Page No.
Fig 3.1 Key plan of study area 10
Fig 3.2 Top view of two junction 11
Fig 3.3 Model view of project 11
Fig 3.4 Model view of junction 12
Fig 3.5 Model view of RCC box junction 12
Fig 3.6 Excavation on construction site 14
Fig 3.7 Gabion wall 15
Fig 3.8 Construction of Gabion wall 15
Fig 3.9 Survey work on site 16
Fig 3.10 Risk Management process 17
Fig 3.11 Risk Management cycle 18
Fig 4.1 Projected traffic 23
Fig 4.2 Traffic management plan 1 25
Fig 4.3 Traffic management plan 2 26
Fig 4.4 Traffic management plan 3 26
Fig 4.5 Traffic management plan 4 27
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 General :
Risk management(RM) is a mechanism to help to predict and deal with events that
might prevent project outcomes being delivered on time.
Risk management (RM) is a concept which is used in all industries, from IT
related business, automobile or pharmaceutical industry, to the construction sector. Each
industry has developed their own RM standards, but the general ideas of the concept
usually remain the same regardless of the sector. According to the Project Management
Institute, project risk management is one of the nine most critical parts of project
commissioning. This indicates a strong relationship between managing risks and a project
success. While RM is described as the most difficult area within construction
management its application is promoted in all projects in order to avoid negative
consequences.
It can be carried out effectively by investigating and identifying the risks associated with
each activity of the project. These risks can be assessed or measured in terms of
likelihood and impact. The construction industry operates in a very uncertain environment
where conditions can change due to the complexity of each project. The aim of each
organization is to be successful and RM can facilitate it. However it should be underlined that
risk management is not a tool which ensures success but rather a tool which helps to increase
the probability of achieving success. Risk management is therefore a proactive rather than a
reactive concept. Many previous studies have been conducted within the field of RM but each
presents a different approach to this concept.
For an infrastructure project there is always a chance that things would not turn out
exactly as planned. Thus project risk pertains to the probability of uncertainties of the
technical, schedule and cost outcomes.
The major activities in Construction of 6 Lane Grade Separator facility at
Thaltej & Gurudwara Junction on NH-8 C Gandhinagar – Sarkhej - Cadilla circle road
consist of feasibility study, design, traffic diversion, utility diversion, excavation,
structure works, drainage works, backfilling, pavement work and restoration works.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 2
1.2 Problem Identification :
To identify potential problems through Risk Identification before they occur so that risk-
handling activities may be planned and invoked as needed across the life of the project to
mitigate adverse impacts on achieving objectives.
1.3 Aims &Objectives :
To minimize the impact of unplanned incidents on the project by identifying and
addressing potential risks.
To identify, assess, monitor and manage risks (Risk Identification)
To assess impact of risk (Risk Identification)
To identify mitigative action (Risk Analysis)
To control uncertain aspect of project (Control Risk Environment)
To eliminate/transfer/reduce risks (Risks Response Planning)
Risk severity and categorization
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 3
1.4 Scope of Work :
The objective of the study is to find risk management means for the risks that
are associated with the project and to make improvement suggestions on the use of
risk management methods. Currently, a vast number of risk management methods
exist, but none of them pertain to a situation where multiple actors are required to work
together on one project. The subsidiary objective is to identify the risks then to
prepare plan to mitigate the risk using Quantitative analysis method and Qualitative
analysis method for the successfully outcome of the project. The purpose of project report
is to evaluate how the risk management process is used in the construction industry and
how the practitioners are managing risks in everyday situations.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 4
Chapter 2
Literature Review
A through risk management process combines two defined forms namely qualitative and
quantitative analysis. Qualitative risk analysis mainly focuses on prioritizing the risks for
which action needs to be taken. It is also a pre-requisite for quantitative risk analysis.
Quantitative risk and uncertainty analysis can consist of deterministic methods such as
decision trees or risk matrices and stochastic methods such as Monte Carlo simulation. As
per them, Monte Carlo simulation helps to assess the probability to achieve project
objectives. It helps in identifying realistic and achievable cost, schedule and scope targets.
Also it helps in determination of the apparent best project decision when some conditions
or outcomes are uncertain.
Diekmann and Featherman (1998) developed a cost uncertainty assessing model based
on influence diagramming and Monte Carlo simulation.
Dey (2001) developed an Integrated Project Management Model where he incorporated
risk management into the conventional project management model and cited it as an
integral component of project management. But the analysis carried out by finding
out the respective likelihoods of the identified risks were found to be having a summation
of 1 for the respective work packages on local percentage (LP) basis and the
summation of the likelihoods of all the concerned work packages to be equal to 1 on
global percentage (GP) basis.
Jannadi and Almishari (2003) developed a risk assessor model for assessing the
risk associated with a particular activity and they tried to find out a justification factor
for the proposed remedial measure for risk mitigation.
Nehru and Vaid (2003) carried out the risk analysis with similar concepts.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 5
Reilly and Brown(2004) carried out their research on construction projects. Reilly and
Brown stated that infrastructure projects are inherently complex projects with many
variables including uncertain and variable conditions. As per Reilly for a complex
infrastructure project it is very important to identify the risk events in early phases of the
project. A proper risk mitigation plan if developed for the identified risks, it would ensure
better and smooth achievement of project goals within specified time, cost and quality
parameters. It would also ensure better construction safety throughout the execution and
operational phase of the project.
Damien Schatteman.et.al (1990), in their paper presents contain sample evidence that
many construction projects fail to achieve their time, budget and quality goals. The
methodology relies on a computer supported risk management system that allows
identifying, analyzing and quantifying the major risk factors and deriving the probability
of their occurrence and their impact on the duration of the project activities. The objective
of this paper is to describe a methodology for integrated risk management and
proactive/reactive construction project scheduling. The efficient risk quantification
method introduced in this paper, yields a duration distribution for each project activity.
The results obtained during the implementation of the methodology on real life projects
are very promising
Ossama A. Abdou.et.al (1996), in their paper presents construction is a process governed
by complicated contracts and involving complex relationships in several tiers, and there are
many risks involved in construction projects. Generally, there are three kinds of construction
risks. They relate to construction finance, construction time, and design. The present paper
addresses these risks in detail in light of the different contractual relationships existing
among the functional entities involved in the design, development, and construction of a
project, and identifies the proper steps to be taken in the analysis and management of
construction risks, the present paper identifies the various entries involved In risk generation
and management, and proposes strategies that can curb such risks at different construction
phases.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 6
Cheng Siew Goh.et.al (2003) ,in their paper, describes the aims to explore how a risk
management workshop can be effectively used in managing project risks, by studying a risk
management workshop that was conducted in a public project. The subsequent performance
of the public organization in managing risks was examined by evaluating its functional risk
management implementation. This research provides a sound basis for improving RM
performance by demonstrating the effectiveness and challenges of an RM workshop. The
case study illustrates the use of a workshop as an integrated RM approach, which in practice
includes brainstorming, checklist, probability impact matrices, subjective judgement, and
risk register.
Ming-Teh Wang.et.al (2003), in their paper presents Risks always exist in construction
projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in
project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. We conducted
multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway
projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the
influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. This study provides
analytic procedures to recognize the risk allocation of construction projects and investigate
the influences of risk allocation to contractors’ risk handling decisions. These procedures
help contractors define their risk responsibilities and make risk handling decisions more
properly.
Patrick. X.W. Zou.et.al (2005), in their paper describes aims to identify and analyse the
risks associated with the development of construction projects from project stakeholder and
life cycle perspectives. Managing risks in construction projects has been recognised as a
very important management process in order to achieve the project objectives in terms of
time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. An innovative attempt to analyse
these key risks from the perspectives of project stakeholders and project life cycle presented
the following insights– clients, designers and government bodies should work cooperatively
from the feasibility phase onwards to address potential risks effectively and in time;
contractors and subcontractors with robust construction and management knowledge must
be employed early to make sound preparation for carrying out safe, efficient and quality
construction activities.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 7
Kris R. Nielsen.et.al (2006), in their paper develops the types of risks for eight categories of
risk factors being experienced, tools being used, application options and successes, and the
contexts needed for success. The basis for these approaches is the global project
management experience of the writer over the last three decades on six continents (on-shore
and off-shore) including oil and gas, water, and wastewater. Project management is the most
widely found cause for failure to meet project objectives and goals. Within today’s project
management bodies of knowledge, risk management techniques are evolving as a key tool to
maximize achievement of goals.
Martin Schieg.et.al (2006), in their paper, describes the risk management process
comprises 6 process steps (Identifying risks, Analysing risks, Assessing risks, Controlling
risks, Monitoring risks, Controlling goals). The integration of a risk management system in
construction projects must be oriented to the progress of the project and permeate all areas,
functions and processes of the project. Risk management successfully installed in the project
offers the chance to gain a clear understanding of the goals, duties and contents of the
service and the feasibility of the project.
Sukulpat Khumpaisal.et.al (2007), in their paper, describes the risk management in
construction projects is considered as an important part of the management process. Since
risk in construction projects associated with three major principles, which are Time, Cost
and Quality. The Risk Management Process is concerned with identifying, analyzing, and
taking action against project risks, which also includes maximizing the results of positive
events and minimizing the consequences of adverse or uncertain events. This article will
emphatically focus on risk that is caused by the complexity of the construction procurement
process.
S. Mohamed.et.al (2008), this research study seeks to identify and evaluate key risk factors
and their preventive and mitigating measures in building projects in Palestine. The
construction industry is widely associated with a high degree of risk and uncertainty due to
the nature of its operating environment. Research findings identify financial failure of the
contractor to be the most important risk factor followed closely by two factors namely,
working in dangerous areas and border closure. The results also indicate that close
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 8
supervision is seen as the most effective risk mitigating method. The paper recommends that
contracting companies should identify and adequately quantify project risk factors.
Low Sui Pheng.et.al (2008), in their paper presents the External risk management
encompasses many areas such as finance, politics and national cultures, and there are many
literatures that focus significantly on risk management in each area. Managing external risks
are not unlike managing project risks and the same principles that are applied to project risk
management may well be used to manage external risks. The survey results have shown that
although the risk management status is generally poor, most of the respondents agreed that a
lack of capable people may pose difficulties to the effective implementation of risk
management in the company.
Adwoa Agyakwa-Baah.et.al (2009), in their paper presented part of the MSc dissertation
study which sought to investigate aspect of risk assessment and management practices
(RAMP) deployment among the medium and large sized enterprises (MLE’s) within the
Ghanaian construction sector. This involved a questionnaire survey of clients (both public
and private), contractors and consultants involved with construction projects. In this study,
25 risk factors likely to occur on construction projects in Ghana were identified. These
findings provide decision making support for different types of construction organizations
by deepening their understanding of how varying professionals and their length of
experience within the industry assess the likelihood of occurrence of risk variables on
construction projects.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 9
Chapter 3
Study Area and Methodology
____________________________________________________
3.1 Description of Study Area :
The City of Ahmedabad is expanding along the major transportation corridors namely
Ahmedabad- Baroda, Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad Kalol, Ahmedabad Sanand
as well as Ahmedabad-Dehgam highway, Sarkhej Gandhinagar National highway and the
Hansol – GandhinagarHighway . Remarkable growth of institutional development as well
as recreational clubs and religious buildings and farm houses, commercial complexes
have been taken place on the periphery of the Sarkhej-Gandhinagar, N.H.No.8C Part of
N.H.8 and the Hansol-Gandhinagar Highway while in the Area beyond the Ahmedabad
Municipal Corporation limit and upto Sarkhej –Gandhinagar highway, considerable
development of multi-storied residential flats and the Luxurious bungalows have come
up.
The Sarkhej –Gandhinagar National Highway 8-C passes in the AUDA area dividing in
two parts of AUDA (I) Eastern part and (ii) Western part. The eastern part is witnessing
the concentration of lower and middle income group residential and industrial as well as
commercial activities. High Income Residential areas largely in the form of plotted
development as well as farm houses are coming up beyond Sarkhej-Gandhinagar highway
and AUDA boundary towards the Western side particularly at Bopal, Ghuma, Shelaj,
RachardaVadsar, Khatraj and other settlements.
The Sarkhej-Gandhinagar Highway, commonly known as SG road being a part of theNH
8 has the maximum number of vehicles passing through it - goods carriages aswell as
passenger vehicles. Increasing number of shopping malls have only addedto the existing
traffic and parking problems, mainly during weekends. The six kmstretch from High
Court to Karnavati Club has almost 15 malls/multiplexes andshopping arcades. It causes
heavy traffic flow, serious traffic congestion and frequenttraffic jams on the city roads
during peak hours, besides propelling the air pollutionlevel.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 10
Fig. 3.1 Key Plan of Study Area
6 Lane Grade separator facility at Thaltej-Gurudwarajunction on NH- 8C on
Gandhinagar-Sarkhej road in Gujarat State.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 11
Fig. 3.2 Top view of Two Junction
Source : Google Map
Gurudwara Junction Thaltej Junction
Fig. 3.3 Model view of Project
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 12
Fig. 3.4 Model view of Junction
Fig. 3.5 Model view of R.C.C Box Junction
3.2 Scope of Work for Propose Grade Separator :
3.2.1 :RCC Box at Gurudwara and Thaltej Junctions
The RCC Box is proposed at Junctions in length of 50 m along the NH. The inside clear
width of the Box is 2 cells of 13.40 width and has a clear height of 5.5m. The wearing
surface consisting of RCC wearing coat of 75mm thickness has been provided.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 13
3.2.2 :Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej Junction from Gandhinagar side
using Gabion Walls
The Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej junction is having a length of 275 m. The width of
approach is 27.30 m having 2 carraigeways of 12.25, median of 1m and 0.6m width of
drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls whose width will
vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this approach varies from
1.5 m to 8.2 m near the junction. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in
the approach.
3.2.3
epressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junction
using Gabion Walls
The Depressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junction is having a length of
370 m. The width of approach is 27.30 m having 2 carriageways of 12.25, median of 1m
and 0.6m width of drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls
whose width will vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this
approach is 8.2 m. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in the approach.
3.2.4 :Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara Junction from Sarkhej Side
using Gabion Walls
The Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara junction is having a length of 605 m. The width
of approach is 27.30 m having 2 carraigeways of 12.25, median of 1m and 0.6m width of
drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls whose width will
vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this approach varies from
1.5 m to 8.2 m near the junction. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in
the approach.
3.2.5: At Grade Slip Roads on both side
10 m wide slip roads are provided on either side of the approaches and depressed highway
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 14
for traffic moving at grade. Flexible Pavement is provided as per required crust.
3.2.6: Storm Water Drainage to dispose rainwater into nearby
waterway/lake
As the road is to be depressed the storm water drainage has to been give the due
importance. RCC covered drains are provided in the entire length of the facility both at
grade as well as in the depressed portion. This storm water drain is further extended up to
a nearby lake by means of 1000mm dia RCC NP 4 pipe drain in order to ensure proper
disposal of the rainwater. Necessary Manholes have also been included.
3.2.7: Road Furniture
Road furniture such as delineator, Signage, Thermoplastic paint etc has been considered
in the design as per requirement.
3.3 SitePhotographs :
Fig. 3.6 Excavation on Construction Site
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 15
Fig. 3.7 Gabbion Wall
Fig. 3.8 Construction of Gabbion Wall
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 16
Fig. 3.9 Survey work on Site
The project, which will see six lanes being created on either side over a stretch of 2.2
kilometres from New York towers till Pakwan restaurant, includes construction of two
underpasses — at Gobind Dham Gurudwara and Thaltej intersections — at a distance of
400 metres.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 17
3.4 Risk Management Process :
Generally two broad categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative analysis
aredistinguished in literature on risk assessment. A qualitative analysis allows the key risk
factors to be identified. Risk factors may be identified through a data-driven (quantitative)
methodology or qualitative process such as interviews, brainstorming, and checklists. It is
considered as an evaluation process which involves description of each risk and its
impacts or the subjective labelling of risk (high/medium/low) in terms of both risk impact
and probability of its occurrence.
The analysis of risks can be Quantitative or Qualitativein nature depending on the amount
of information available. Qualitative analysis focuses on identification together with
assessment of risk, and quantitative analysis focuses on the evaluation of risk.
Fig. 3.10 Risk Management Process
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 18
3.5 Risk Management Cycle :
Fig. 3.11 Risk Management Cycle
Risk management of construction projects is a complex problem. and each project has its
key features, which means that project risk management strategies should be established
according to each project's characteristics. For some construction projects, the risk
migration effects arc significant. Risk factors in one construction stage may affect other
stages, and risk events happen later can amplify the effects of previous risk events. III this
case, integrating risk factors of different project stages and managing risks based on Risk
management cycle is an appropriate way to establish risk management model.
3.6 Risk Analysis Methodology :
Risk analysis is the second stage in the Risk Management Process (RMP) where collected
data about the potential risk are analyzed. Risk analysis can be described as short listing
risks with the highest impact on the project, out of all threats mentioned in the
identification phase.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 19
In the analysis of the identified risk, two categories of methods Qualitative and
Quantitative have been developed.
The qualitative methods are most applicable when risks can be placed somewhere on a
descriptive scale from high to low level.
The quantitative methods are used to determine the probability and impact of the risks
identified and are based on numeric estimations .
Use of a qualitative approach since it is more convenient to describe the risks than to
quantitative method.
Within the quantitative and qualitative categories, a number of methods which use
different assumptions can be found, and it may be problematic to choose an appropriate
risk assessment model for a specific project. The methods should be chosen depending on
the type of risk, project scope as well as on the specific methods requirements and
criteria.
3.6.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis :
Qualitative risk analysis includes methods for prioritizing the identifiedrisks for further
action, such as risk response. The PRMT can improve theproject‘s performance
effectively by focusing on high?priority risks.
Qualitative methods for risk assessment are based on descriptive scales, and are used for
describing the likelihood and impact of a risk. These relatively simple techniques apply
when quick assessment is required in small and medium size projects. Moreover, this
method is often used in case of inadequate, limited or unavailable numerical data as well
as limited resources of time and money.
The main aim is to prioritize potential threats in order to identify those of greatest impact
on the project, and by focusing on those threats, improve the project‘s overall
performance. The complexity of scales and definitions used in this examination reflect the
project's size and its objectives. During the phases of the construction, risks may change,
and thus continuous risk assessment helps to establish actual risk status.
Limitations of qualitative methods lie in the accuracy of the data needed to provide
credible analysis. In order for the risk analysis to be of use for the project team, the
accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity of the information as well as understanding the
risk is essential
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 20
3.6.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis :
The quantitative methods are used to determine the probability and impact of the risks
identified and are based on numeric estimations.
Quantitative risk analysis is a way of numerically estimating the probabilitythat a project
will meet its cost and time objectives. Quantitative analysis isbased on a simultaneous
evaluation of the impact of all identified andquantified risks, using Monte Carlo
simulation by Crystal BallorPrimavera Risk Analysis software. The result is a probability
distribution ofthe project‘s cost and completion date based on the identified risks in
theproject.
Quantitative risk analysis simulation starts with the model of the project andeither its
project schedule or its cost estimate, depending on the objective. The degree ofuncertainty
ineach schedule activity and each line?item cost element is represented by a probability
distribution. Theprobability distribution is usually specified by determining the
optimistic, the most likely, and thepessimistic values for the activity or cost element. This
is typically called the ?3?point estimate.? Thethree points are estimated by the project
team or other subject matter experts who focus on theschedule or cost elements one at a
time.
The software produces a probability distribution ofpossible completion dates and project
costs. From this distribution, it is possible to answer suchquestions as:
How likely is the current plan to come in on schedule or on budget?
How much contingency reserve of time or money is needed to provide a sufficient degree
ofconfidence?
Which activities or line?item cost elements contribute the most to the possibility of
overrunning scheduleor cost targets can be determined by performing sensitivity analysis
with the software.
Quantitative methods need a lot of work for the analysis to be performed. The effort
should be weighed against the benefits and outcomes from the chosen method
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 21
Chapter 4
Data Collection
4.1 Traffic Data Collection :
At Thaltej Road Junction, road from Memnagar to Shilaj crosses Sarkhej-Gandhinagar
road NH-8C . The additional Gurudwara junction covered in the project is primarily a tee
junction
Traffic Surveys at this location was carried out. The results of the Same are shown in
figures below. The figures indicate average daily traffic.
The peak hour traffic during evening 16 to 20 hours and in the morning 8 to 12 hours at
Thaltej junction are as under :
Table 4.1 Details of Traffic Direction
Sr.No. Details of Traffic Direction
16 to 21 hours 8 to 12 hours
PCU PCU
i. From Thaltej Gam (on minor street)
Total Traffic 3862 6321
Average hourly traffic 772 1580
ii. From Drive-in road (on minor street)
Total Traffic 7127 3413
Average hourly traffic 1425 853
Total of both direction 10989 9734
Total of average hourly traffic 2197 2433
iii. From Gandhinagar (on major road)
Total Traffic 10801 10195
Average hourly traffic 2160 2549
iv. From Satellite (on major road)
Total Traffic 10321 6096
Average hourly traffic 2064 1524
Total of both direction 21122 16291
Total of average hourly traffic 4224 4073
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 22
The peak hour traffic during evening 16 to 20 hours and in the morning 8 to 12 hours at
Gurudwara junction are as under :
Table 4.2 Details of Traffic Direction
Sr. Details of Traffic Direction
16 to 21 hours 8 to 12 hours
PCU PCU
i. From Satelite (on major Road)
Total Traffic 15482 12137
Average hourly traffic 3096 3034
ii. From Gandhinagar side (on major road)
Total Traffic 10042 8411
Average hourly traffic 2008 2103
Total of both direction 25524 20548
Total of average overly traffic 5104 5137
Iii. From Thaltej side (on minor street)
Total Traffic 2529 1107
Average hourly traffic 506 277
iv. From Vastrapur side (on miner street )
Total Traffic 4074 2303
Average hourly traffic 809 576
Total of both direction 6603 3410
Total of average hourly traffic 1315 853
On Sundays and holidays due to very heavy traffic comes to a standstill due to very heavy
congestion due to many recreational facilities near the junction disturbing the smooth
flow of the traffic on the NH.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 23
4.2 Projected Traffic :
The base year Peak Hourly traffic of the junction has been projected for the horizon years
(up to years 2022) using the growth rates 7.5% and is presented in table shown below
Table 4.3 Projected Future Traffic
Sr.
No
Description 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
1
Average Hourly Traffic at
6421 6903 7420 7977 8575 9218
the Junction (PCU/hr)
2
Average Hourly Traffic
4244 4562 4904 5272 5668 6093
along NH (PCU/hr)
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
PCU/HR on NH
5000
PCU/HR ON JUN
4000 Column1
3000
2000
1000
0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Fig. 4.1 Projected Traffic
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 24
4.3 Traffic Movement at different junction :
Table 4.4 Details of Traffic Movement
Thaltej Intersection Gurudwara Intersection Pakwan Intersection
Movement Veh PCU Movement Veh PCU Movement Veh PCU
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
2113 1775
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
1893 1638 JB- BOPAL 649 523
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
1677 1575 Gurudwara-Sarkhej 83 64 Bopal-JB 777 607
Sarkhej-Shilaj 390 261
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
1977 1757
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
2231 1874
Shilaj-Sarkhej 119 99
Gandhinagar-
Gurudwara
105 82
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
2311 1976
Shilaj-Gurukul 294 248 Vastrapur-Sarkhej 369 285 Gandhinagar-JB 315 255
Gurukul-Shilaj 494 351
Gurudwara-
Gandhinagar
84 55 JB-Gandhinagar 349 277
Shilaj-
Ganghinagar
263 203
Vastrapur-
Gurudwara
113 78 Bopal-Sarkhej 324 276
Gandhinagar-
Shilaj
222 188 Sarkhej-gurudwara 153 141 Sarkhej-bopal 244 203
Gandhinagar-
Gurukul
428 366
Gandhinagar-
Vastrapur
282 244
Gandhinagar-
Bopal
536 468
Sarkhej-Gurukul 407 350
Gurudwara-
Vastrapur
155 103
Bopal-
Gandhinagar
444 315
Gurukul-Sarkhej 545 457
Vastrapur-
Gandhinagar
413 333 JB-Sarkhej 381 317
Gurukul-
Gandhinagar
336 319 Sarkhej-Vastrapur 262 212 Sarkhej-JB 806 674
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 25
4.4 Traffic Management Plan :
A traffic management plan is developed in order to cope with traffic disruptions that call
for actions to be taken up during construction activity on a given road or network.
The plan is prepared with objectives to regulate smooth flow of traffic, in the event of
construction activity which leads to blockage of two major intersections at Thaltej and
Gururdwara locations. The traffic management plan is prepared to:
• facilitate smooth circulation of traffic during construction period of underpasses
• minimize traffic jams
• facilitate safety to traffic during construction, and
• facilitate smooth progress of construction activity which in turn result completion of
construction of underpasses.
The traffic management plan prepared is synchronized with construction sequencing, it
has three stages.
The Traffic management plan for these stages along with proper signs giving adequate
route information and necessary circulation are provided through plans.
Fig. 4.2 Traffic Management Plan 1
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 26
Fig. 4.3 Traffic Management Plan 2
Fig. 4.4 Traffic Management Plan 3
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 27
Fig. 4.5 Traffic Management Plan 4
4.5 Accident Data :
Table 4.5 Accident Data on S.G. Highway
Sr No
Date of Accident
Place of Accident
Fetal / Injury
1
13/09/2011
Karnavati Club
Injury
2
07/01/2012
Karnavati Club
Injury
3
02/06/2012
Iscon Cross Road
Injury
4
06/06/2012
Opposite Gurudwara Junction
Injury
5
07/08/2012
Shapath-4, S.G. Highway
Fetal
6
08/08/2012
Thaltej Cross Road
Injury
7
30/08/2012
Pakwan Cross Road
Injury
8
01/09/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
9
15/11/2012
Nima Farm
Fetal
10
09/01/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
11
28/02/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
12
22/02/2013
Shapath-5, S.G. Highway
Injury
13
16/03/2013
Nima Farm
Fetal
14
28/05/2013
Nima Farm
Injury
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 28
Chapter 5
Qualitative Analysis of Problem
5.1 Risk Identification :
It is a process to acknowledge risk events and to identify characteristics of risk events for
the selected project based on the risk-related information.
The risks identified subsequent to the activities of the project are classified as follows:
? Delay in approval and permissions
? ROW Acquisition
? Traffic Diversion
? Utility shifting
? Excavation
? Testing Commissioning of materials
? Technical uncertainities
? Major / Minor Accident during Execution
? Site Communication
? Force Majeure Risks like Flood, Rain,Earthquake etc.
? Labour Agitation and Strikes
? Political
5.2 Risk Assessment :
Qualitative risk analysis for projects assigns a Risk Rating to each risk in the risk register.
Therisk ratings determine where the greatest effort should be focused in responding to the
risks. Theyfacilitate structured risk response action and resource allocation.
The three ratings for projects are:
?High? – First priority for risk response.
?Medium? – Risk response as time and resources permit.
?Low? – No risk response required at this time.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 29
5.3 Entering Assessment in to Risk Register :
Table 5.1 Risk Assessment
Column
Contents
Risk Rating
Select ?High?, ?Medium?, or ?Low? as a measure of the
importance of this risk for response action.
Rationale
Describe the reasons the PRMT selected this risk rating.
5.4 Risk Analysis :
5.4.1 “Risk” Includes Threats and Opportunities :
The concept of risk can include positive and negative impacts. This means that the word
?risk? can be used to describe uncertainties that, if they occurred, would have a negative or
harmful effect. The same word can also describe uncertainties that, if they occurred,
would be helpful. In short, there are two sides to risk: threats and opportunities.
Projects in design have the greatest potential for opportunities because the project is still
open tochanges. Risk reduction and avoidance are opportunities, as are value analyses,
constructabilityreviews, and innovations in design, construction methods, and materials. Risk
Analysis is the determination of value of risk related to a concrete situation and a
recognized threat. In project management, risk analysis is an integral part of the risk
management plan, studying the probability, the impact, and the effect of every known risk on
the project.
5.4.2 Probability and Impact Ratings :
The cost impactratings may be easier to apply if expressed in terms of dollars. The ratings
for the project serve as aconsistent frame of reference for the PRMT in assessing the risks
during the life of the project
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 30
Table 5.2 Risk Analysis of different Events
Risk
ID
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Risk Event
Delay in approval and
permission
ROW Acquisition
Traffic Diversion
Utility shifting
Excavation
Testing/Commissioning
of materials
Technical uncertainities
Major / Minor Accidents
during Execution
Site Communication
Force Majeure Risks like
Flood, Rain, Earthquake
etc.
Labour Agitation and
Strikes
Political
Probability
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Impact
Medium
High
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Medium/
High
Risk Value
Score
Medium 9
Medium 12
High 16
Medium 9
Low 6
Low 6
Medium 12
Medium 6
Low 4
Medium 8
Medium
6
Medium
8
Probability
Ranking
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
This demonstrates how each identified risk is categorized in terms of its impact on project
and its probability of occurring. Further they are multiplied together to produce risk score
and mapped onto a risk matrix.
5.5 Performing Qualitative Risk :
The PRMT assesses each identified risk in turn and assesses:
? The rating for the probability of the risk occurring, and
? The rating of cost and time impact of each risk, should it occur.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 31
5.6 Risk Matrix :
The risk matrix is used to determine the importance of each risk impact based on
theprobability and impact ratings. Each word descriptor of the rating has an associated
number; theproduct of the probability number and impact number defines the risk score.
Table 5.3 Risk Matrix
V.HIGH
5 10 15 20 25
5
HIGH
4 8 12 16 20
4
MEDIUM
3 6 9 12 15
3
LOW
2 4 6
8
10
2
V.LOW
1 2 3 4 5
1
V.LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH
1 2 3 4 5
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 32
The risk score thus obtained was then sorted in an increasing order to find the risks which
caused maximum threat for the respondents. These were further divided into categories
based on the risk score. This process is termed as risk categorization.
The scale followed for risk categorization is shown below:
Table 5.4 Risk Score
Risk
Score
Low
1-5
Modium
6-14
High
15-++
5.7 Risk categorization :
Table 5.5 Risk Categorization
Risk
ID
Risk Event Score
Categorization
according to Score
9 Site Communication 4 Low
5 Excavation 6 Medium
6 Testing/Commissioning of materials 6 Medium
8
Major / Minor Accidents during
Execution
6 Medium
11 Labor Agitation and Strikes 6 Medium
10
Force Majeure Risks like Flood,
Rain, Earthquake etc.
8 Medium
12 Political 8 Medium
4 Utility shifting 9 Medium
1 Delay in approval and permission 9 Medium
2 ROW Acquisition 12 Medium
7 Technical uncertainities 12 Medium
3 Traffic Diversion 16 High
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 33
Entering Risk Responses into the Risk Register
Sr.
No
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
1
Delay in
approval &
permission
Dealy
in time
Threat Time Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Accept
Attempt to
approval for
higher.
Authority
Govern-
ment
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
2
ROW
acquisiion
risk
Dealy
in time
Threat Time Medium High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Transfer
Consultation
/Concurrenc
e
Govern-
ment
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
3
Risk in
traffic
diversion
work
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Time High High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Traffic
diversion
plans
Alternatives
Govern-
ment
H X
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 34
Sr
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
4
Risk in
utility
shifting
works
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Cost Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Prior notice
before
Commencin
g work for
utility
shifting
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
5
Risk in
Exacvation
work
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Time Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Contract
award
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
6
Political
Risks
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Scope Low
Mediu
m/High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Accept/
Transfer
Govern-
ment
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 35
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
7
Testing
Commission
ing of works
Cost Threat Quality Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
8
Geo-
Technical
Risk
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Cost Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Accept
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
9
Technical
UncertainIti
es
Delay
in
Time
Threat Time Medium High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate Contract
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 36
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
10
Major/Mino
r Accidents
during
execution
Threat Cost Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Precautive
safety
measures
Contract
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
11
Site
Communica
tion
Threat Cost Low Low
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
12
Force
measure
risk like
flood, rain ,
earthquake
etc
Cost/
Time
Threat Cost Low High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Contract
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 37
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
13
Labour
Agitation &
Strikes
Threat Cost Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Project
Manager
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 38
Table 5.6 Response towards Risk
Risk
Response
Responsible
Response
Risk Event
ID
Strategy
Entity
Actions
01
Delay in approval and
permission
Accept
Government
Efforts for early
approval from the
Authority
02
ROW Acquisition
Accept
Government
Legal Action/
Consultation
03
Traffic Diversion
Mitigate
Government
Traffic diversion
plans/
Alternatives
04
Utility shifting
Mitigate
Government
Issuing Prior
Notice before
commencing the
work/Legal
actions
Notification
05
Excavation
Mitigate
Contractor
Methodology
adoption/
Resource
allocation-
machinery/
manpower
06
Testing/Commissioning
of materials
Mitigate
Contractor
Quality Control
07
Technical uncertainities
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Project
Management /
Planning for each
activity/ resource
requirement
08
Major / Minor Accidents
during Execution
Mitigate
Contractor
Precautive Safety
Measures
09
Site Communication
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Proper
coordination and
Information
sharing
10
Force Majeure Risks like
Flood, Rain, Earthquake
etc.
Accept
Contractor
Early action for
restoration
11
Labor Agitation and
Strikes
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Relative
approach/ Good
communication
12
Political
Mitigate
Accept/Avoid
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 39
5.8 Risk Monitoring :
Continuous monitoring by the project risk manager and the project team ensures that new
and changingrisks are detected and managed and that risk response actions are
implemented and effective. Riskmonitoring continues for the life of the project.
Risk monitoring and control keeps track of the identified risks, residual risks,and new
risks. It also monitors the execution of planned strategies for theidentified risks and
evaluates their effectiveness.
Risk monitoring and control continues for the life of the project. The list ofproject risks
changes as the project matures, new risks develop, oranticipated risks disappear. Risk
ratings and prioritizations can also changeduring the project lifecycle.
Typically, during project execution, risk meetings should be held regularly toupdate the
status of risks in the risk register, and add new risks. Periodic project risk reviews repeat
theprocess of identification, analysis, and response planning.
If an unanticipated risk emerges, or a risk‘s impact is greater than expected, the planned
response maynot be adequate. The project manager and the PRMT should perform
additional responses to controlthe risk.
5.9 Response Towards Risk :
Risk response is the process of developing strategic options, and determining actions, to
enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project‘s objectives. A project team
member is assigned to take responsibility for each risk response. This process ensures that
each risk requiring a response has an owner monitoring the responses, although the owner
may delegate implementation of a response to someone else.
Avoid :Risk can be avoided by removing the cause of the risk or executing the project in
a different way while still aiming to achieve project objectives. Not all risks can be
avoided or eliminated, and for others, this approach may be too expensive or
time?consuming. However, this should be the first strategy considered.
Transfer :Transferring risk involves finding another party who is willing to take
responsibility for its management, and who will bear the liability of the risk should it
occur. The aim is to ensure that the risk is owned and managed by the party best able to
deal with it effectively. Risk transfer usually involves payment of a premium, and the
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 40
cost?effectiveness of this must be considered when deciding whether to adopt a transfer
strategy
Mitigate :Risk mitigation reduces the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event
to an acceptable threshold. Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of
a risk is often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred.
Risk mitigation may require resources or time and thus presents a tradeoff between doing
nothing versus the cost of mitigating the risk.
Acceptance :This strategy is adopted when it is not possible or practical to respond to the
risk by the other strategies, or a response is not warranted by the importance of the risk.
When the project manager and the project team decide to accept a risk, they are agreeing
to address the risk if and when it occurs. A contingency plan, workaround plan and/or
contingency reserve may be developed for that eventuality.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 41
Chapter 6
Conclusion
The risks involved during the construction of the project if not treated or mitigated
properly, the probability of successful completion of the project within the stipulated time
and cost frame will reduce. This will have a direct impact on project.
A major limitation for analysis is that the entire process being probabilistic, the outcome
of the analysis is largely dependent on the opinion of the likelihood and impact of the
identified risks. Also any sort of misinformation will result in inexact results.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 42
References
Project Risk Management Handbook , First edition - June 26, 2003
1. Diekmann, J.E. and Featherman, W.D. (1998) ?Assessing Cost Uncertainty: Lessons
From Environmental Restoration Projects? Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, Vol. 124(6), pp.445 – 451
2. Dey, P.K. (2001) ?Integrated Project Management in Indian Petroleum Industry?
NICMAR Journal of Construction Management, Vol. XVI, pp. 1 – 34
3. Jannadi, O.A. and Almishari, S. (2003) ?Risk Assessment in Construction? Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 129(5), pp. 492-500
4. Nehru, R. and Vaid, K.N. (2003) Construction Project Management, NICMAR
Publication, Mumbai
5. Mulholland, B. and Christan, J.(1999) ?Risk Assessment in Construction Schedules?
Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, Vol. 125(1), pp.8 – 15
6. Chong, Y.Y. and Brown, E.M. (2002) Managing Project Risk: Business
RiskManagement for Project Leaders, Pearson Education, London
7. Nasir, D., McCabe, B. and Hartono, L. (2003) ?Evaluating Risk in Construction –
Schedule Model (ERIC-S): Constr- uction Schedule Risk Model? Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 129(5), pp. 518-527
8. Reilly, J. and Brown, J. (2004) “Managing and Control of Cost and Risk for Tunneling
and Infrastructure Projects” Proceedings of International Tunneling Conference,
Singapore,pp.703 -712
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 43
9. Abdou, O.A. (1996) Managing Construction Risks, Journal of Architectural
Engineering, 2(1), 3-10
10. Ahmed, S.M., Ahmad, R. and Saram, D.D. (1999) Risk Management Trends in the
Hong Kong Construction Industry: a Comparison of Contractors and Owners
Perceptions,Engineering, Construction and Architectural Managemen, 6(3), 225-23
11. Agyakwa-Baah, A and Chileshe, N (2010) Construction professionals perception of
risk assesssment and management practices: does length of service in construction
industry matter.
12. Ossama A. Abdou. (1996). Managing construction risks. journal of architectural
engineering ,24, pp 349–357
13. Cheng Siew Gohand Hamzah Abdul-Rahman.(2001), Managing construction projects
using the advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model.Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, 135, 572-580.
14. Ming-Teh Wang, M. and Hui-Yu Chou. (2003). Risk allocation and risk handling of
highway projects in Taiwan. journal of management in engineering, 19, pp 60–68
15. Patrick. X.W. Zou, and Dr Guomin Zhang. (2000). Identifying key risks in
construction Projects life cycle and stakeholder perspectives. College of Architecture
and Civil Engineering18, pp 369–383.
16. Sukulpat Khumpaisal. (2003). Risks in the construction project Procurement process
and the mitigation methods. Journal of Architectural /Planning Research and Studies
21, pp 136–140.
17. S. Mohamed and J. Abu Mosa. (2008).Risk management in building projects in
palestine: contractors’ perspective, Emirates Journal for Engineering Research,, 12, 29-
44.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 44
18. Low Sui Pheng and Liu Junying. (2009). External risk management practices of
chinese construction firms in singapore, Journal of Civil Engineering, 13(2), 85-95.
doc_195074986.pdf
PROJECT REPORT
ON
“RISK MANAGEMENT IN COSNTRUCTION
PROJECT”
UNDERTAKEN AT
“PATSON ENGINEERING,GUJARAT”
IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF
POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN CONSTRUCTION
& INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT
MIT SCHOOL OF DISTANCE EDUCATION,
PUNE.
GUIDED BY
PROF. RAJAT MISHRA
SUBMITTED BY
Mr.ABHISHEK SHARMA
Registration No.2012004226
MIT SCHOOL OF DISTANCE EDUCATION
PUNE-411 038
YEAR 2013-2015
DECLARATION
I here by declare that this project report entitled “RISK
MANAGEMENT IN COSNTRUCTION PROJECT” is a bonafide record of the
project work carried out by myself during the academic year 2013-2015, in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the award of POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN
CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT (PGDICM) of MIT
School of Distance Education, Pune.
This work has not been undertaken or submitted elsewhere in connection
with any other academic course.
ABHISHEK SHARMA
(Name of Student and Signature)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks and gratitude to
Sh.Subhash Patel for giving me an opportunity to do my summer training in the esteem
organization and it has indeed been a great learning and enjoyable experience.
I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude and profound thanks to all staff
members of (M/s Patson Engineering, Jmangar) for their kind support and cooperation
which helped me in gaining lots of knowledge and experience to do my project work
successfully.
I would like to acknowledge my sincere gratitude to Professor Rajat Mishra, as my
Project Guide for helping me in this project.
At last but not least, I am thankful to my Family and Friends for their moral support,
endurance and encouragement during the course of the project.
ABHISHEK SHARMA
(Students’ name and Signature)
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction
1.1 General
1.2 Problem Identification
1.3 Aim & Objective
1.4 Scope of Work
2 Literature Review
3 Study Area
3.1 Description of study area
3.2 Scope of work for propose grade separator
3.2.1 RCC Box at Gurudwara and Thaltej Junction
3.2.2
Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej Junction from Gandhinagar side
using Gabion walls
3.2.3
Depressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junction
using Gabion walls
3.2.4
Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara junction from Sarkhej side
using Gabion walls
3.2.5 At Grade slip roads on both side
3.2.6 Storm water drainage to dispose rainwater into nearby waterway
3.2.7 Road furniture
3.3 Site photographs
3.4 Risk Management Process
3.5 Risk Management cycle
3.6 Risk analysis methodology
3.6.1 Qualitative Risk analysis
3.6.2 Quantitative Risk analysis
4 Data Collection
4.1 Traffic data collection
4.2 Projected traffic
4.3 Traffic movement at different Junction
4.4 Traffic Management plan
4.5 Accident data
5 Quality analysis of prpblem
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 2
5.1 Risk indentification
5.2 Risk Assessment
5.3 Entering assessent into risk register
5.4 Risk Analysis
5.4.1 Risk includes threats and opportunities
5.4.2 Probability and impact rating
5.5 Performing qualitative risk
5.6 Risk Matrix
5.7 Risk Categorization
5.8 Risk Monitoring
5.9 Response towards Risk
6 Conclusion
7 Reference
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Table Description Page No.
4.1 Details of Traffic direction 21
4.2 Deatails of Traffic direction 22
4.3 Projected future traffic 23
4.4 Details of traffic movement 24
4.5 Accident data on SG Highway
27
5.1 Risk Assessment 29
5.2 Risk analysis of different events 30
5.3 Risk Matrix 31
5.4 Risk Score 32
5.5 Risk categorization 32
5.6. Response towards risk 38
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Figure Description Page No.
Fig 3.1 Key plan of study area 10
Fig 3.2 Top view of two junction 11
Fig 3.3 Model view of project 11
Fig 3.4 Model view of junction 12
Fig 3.5 Model view of RCC box junction 12
Fig 3.6 Excavation on construction site 14
Fig 3.7 Gabion wall 15
Fig 3.8 Construction of Gabion wall 15
Fig 3.9 Survey work on site 16
Fig 3.10 Risk Management process 17
Fig 3.11 Risk Management cycle 18
Fig 4.1 Projected traffic 23
Fig 4.2 Traffic management plan 1 25
Fig 4.3 Traffic management plan 2 26
Fig 4.4 Traffic management plan 3 26
Fig 4.5 Traffic management plan 4 27
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 1
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 General :
Risk management(RM) is a mechanism to help to predict and deal with events that
might prevent project outcomes being delivered on time.
Risk management (RM) is a concept which is used in all industries, from IT
related business, automobile or pharmaceutical industry, to the construction sector. Each
industry has developed their own RM standards, but the general ideas of the concept
usually remain the same regardless of the sector. According to the Project Management
Institute, project risk management is one of the nine most critical parts of project
commissioning. This indicates a strong relationship between managing risks and a project
success. While RM is described as the most difficult area within construction
management its application is promoted in all projects in order to avoid negative
consequences.
It can be carried out effectively by investigating and identifying the risks associated with
each activity of the project. These risks can be assessed or measured in terms of
likelihood and impact. The construction industry operates in a very uncertain environment
where conditions can change due to the complexity of each project. The aim of each
organization is to be successful and RM can facilitate it. However it should be underlined that
risk management is not a tool which ensures success but rather a tool which helps to increase
the probability of achieving success. Risk management is therefore a proactive rather than a
reactive concept. Many previous studies have been conducted within the field of RM but each
presents a different approach to this concept.
For an infrastructure project there is always a chance that things would not turn out
exactly as planned. Thus project risk pertains to the probability of uncertainties of the
technical, schedule and cost outcomes.
The major activities in Construction of 6 Lane Grade Separator facility at
Thaltej & Gurudwara Junction on NH-8 C Gandhinagar – Sarkhej - Cadilla circle road
consist of feasibility study, design, traffic diversion, utility diversion, excavation,
structure works, drainage works, backfilling, pavement work and restoration works.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 2
1.2 Problem Identification :
To identify potential problems through Risk Identification before they occur so that risk-
handling activities may be planned and invoked as needed across the life of the project to
mitigate adverse impacts on achieving objectives.
1.3 Aims &Objectives :
To minimize the impact of unplanned incidents on the project by identifying and
addressing potential risks.
To identify, assess, monitor and manage risks (Risk Identification)
To assess impact of risk (Risk Identification)
To identify mitigative action (Risk Analysis)
To control uncertain aspect of project (Control Risk Environment)
To eliminate/transfer/reduce risks (Risks Response Planning)
Risk severity and categorization
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 3
1.4 Scope of Work :
The objective of the study is to find risk management means for the risks that
are associated with the project and to make improvement suggestions on the use of
risk management methods. Currently, a vast number of risk management methods
exist, but none of them pertain to a situation where multiple actors are required to work
together on one project. The subsidiary objective is to identify the risks then to
prepare plan to mitigate the risk using Quantitative analysis method and Qualitative
analysis method for the successfully outcome of the project. The purpose of project report
is to evaluate how the risk management process is used in the construction industry and
how the practitioners are managing risks in everyday situations.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 4
Chapter 2
Literature Review
A through risk management process combines two defined forms namely qualitative and
quantitative analysis. Qualitative risk analysis mainly focuses on prioritizing the risks for
which action needs to be taken. It is also a pre-requisite for quantitative risk analysis.
Quantitative risk and uncertainty analysis can consist of deterministic methods such as
decision trees or risk matrices and stochastic methods such as Monte Carlo simulation. As
per them, Monte Carlo simulation helps to assess the probability to achieve project
objectives. It helps in identifying realistic and achievable cost, schedule and scope targets.
Also it helps in determination of the apparent best project decision when some conditions
or outcomes are uncertain.
Diekmann and Featherman (1998) developed a cost uncertainty assessing model based
on influence diagramming and Monte Carlo simulation.
Dey (2001) developed an Integrated Project Management Model where he incorporated
risk management into the conventional project management model and cited it as an
integral component of project management. But the analysis carried out by finding
out the respective likelihoods of the identified risks were found to be having a summation
of 1 for the respective work packages on local percentage (LP) basis and the
summation of the likelihoods of all the concerned work packages to be equal to 1 on
global percentage (GP) basis.
Jannadi and Almishari (2003) developed a risk assessor model for assessing the
risk associated with a particular activity and they tried to find out a justification factor
for the proposed remedial measure for risk mitigation.
Nehru and Vaid (2003) carried out the risk analysis with similar concepts.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 5
Reilly and Brown(2004) carried out their research on construction projects. Reilly and
Brown stated that infrastructure projects are inherently complex projects with many
variables including uncertain and variable conditions. As per Reilly for a complex
infrastructure project it is very important to identify the risk events in early phases of the
project. A proper risk mitigation plan if developed for the identified risks, it would ensure
better and smooth achievement of project goals within specified time, cost and quality
parameters. It would also ensure better construction safety throughout the execution and
operational phase of the project.
Damien Schatteman.et.al (1990), in their paper presents contain sample evidence that
many construction projects fail to achieve their time, budget and quality goals. The
methodology relies on a computer supported risk management system that allows
identifying, analyzing and quantifying the major risk factors and deriving the probability
of their occurrence and their impact on the duration of the project activities. The objective
of this paper is to describe a methodology for integrated risk management and
proactive/reactive construction project scheduling. The efficient risk quantification
method introduced in this paper, yields a duration distribution for each project activity.
The results obtained during the implementation of the methodology on real life projects
are very promising
Ossama A. Abdou.et.al (1996), in their paper presents construction is a process governed
by complicated contracts and involving complex relationships in several tiers, and there are
many risks involved in construction projects. Generally, there are three kinds of construction
risks. They relate to construction finance, construction time, and design. The present paper
addresses these risks in detail in light of the different contractual relationships existing
among the functional entities involved in the design, development, and construction of a
project, and identifies the proper steps to be taken in the analysis and management of
construction risks, the present paper identifies the various entries involved In risk generation
and management, and proposes strategies that can curb such risks at different construction
phases.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 6
Cheng Siew Goh.et.al (2003) ,in their paper, describes the aims to explore how a risk
management workshop can be effectively used in managing project risks, by studying a risk
management workshop that was conducted in a public project. The subsequent performance
of the public organization in managing risks was examined by evaluating its functional risk
management implementation. This research provides a sound basis for improving RM
performance by demonstrating the effectiveness and challenges of an RM workshop. The
case study illustrates the use of a workshop as an integrated RM approach, which in practice
includes brainstorming, checklist, probability impact matrices, subjective judgement, and
risk register.
Ming-Teh Wang.et.al (2003), in their paper presents Risks always exist in construction
projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in
project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. We conducted
multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway
projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the
influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. This study provides
analytic procedures to recognize the risk allocation of construction projects and investigate
the influences of risk allocation to contractors’ risk handling decisions. These procedures
help contractors define their risk responsibilities and make risk handling decisions more
properly.
Patrick. X.W. Zou.et.al (2005), in their paper describes aims to identify and analyse the
risks associated with the development of construction projects from project stakeholder and
life cycle perspectives. Managing risks in construction projects has been recognised as a
very important management process in order to achieve the project objectives in terms of
time, cost, quality, safety and environmental sustainability. An innovative attempt to analyse
these key risks from the perspectives of project stakeholders and project life cycle presented
the following insights– clients, designers and government bodies should work cooperatively
from the feasibility phase onwards to address potential risks effectively and in time;
contractors and subcontractors with robust construction and management knowledge must
be employed early to make sound preparation for carrying out safe, efficient and quality
construction activities.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 7
Kris R. Nielsen.et.al (2006), in their paper develops the types of risks for eight categories of
risk factors being experienced, tools being used, application options and successes, and the
contexts needed for success. The basis for these approaches is the global project
management experience of the writer over the last three decades on six continents (on-shore
and off-shore) including oil and gas, water, and wastewater. Project management is the most
widely found cause for failure to meet project objectives and goals. Within today’s project
management bodies of knowledge, risk management techniques are evolving as a key tool to
maximize achievement of goals.
Martin Schieg.et.al (2006), in their paper, describes the risk management process
comprises 6 process steps (Identifying risks, Analysing risks, Assessing risks, Controlling
risks, Monitoring risks, Controlling goals). The integration of a risk management system in
construction projects must be oriented to the progress of the project and permeate all areas,
functions and processes of the project. Risk management successfully installed in the project
offers the chance to gain a clear understanding of the goals, duties and contents of the
service and the feasibility of the project.
Sukulpat Khumpaisal.et.al (2007), in their paper, describes the risk management in
construction projects is considered as an important part of the management process. Since
risk in construction projects associated with three major principles, which are Time, Cost
and Quality. The Risk Management Process is concerned with identifying, analyzing, and
taking action against project risks, which also includes maximizing the results of positive
events and minimizing the consequences of adverse or uncertain events. This article will
emphatically focus on risk that is caused by the complexity of the construction procurement
process.
S. Mohamed.et.al (2008), this research study seeks to identify and evaluate key risk factors
and their preventive and mitigating measures in building projects in Palestine. The
construction industry is widely associated with a high degree of risk and uncertainty due to
the nature of its operating environment. Research findings identify financial failure of the
contractor to be the most important risk factor followed closely by two factors namely,
working in dangerous areas and border closure. The results also indicate that close
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 8
supervision is seen as the most effective risk mitigating method. The paper recommends that
contracting companies should identify and adequately quantify project risk factors.
Low Sui Pheng.et.al (2008), in their paper presents the External risk management
encompasses many areas such as finance, politics and national cultures, and there are many
literatures that focus significantly on risk management in each area. Managing external risks
are not unlike managing project risks and the same principles that are applied to project risk
management may well be used to manage external risks. The survey results have shown that
although the risk management status is generally poor, most of the respondents agreed that a
lack of capable people may pose difficulties to the effective implementation of risk
management in the company.
Adwoa Agyakwa-Baah.et.al (2009), in their paper presented part of the MSc dissertation
study which sought to investigate aspect of risk assessment and management practices
(RAMP) deployment among the medium and large sized enterprises (MLE’s) within the
Ghanaian construction sector. This involved a questionnaire survey of clients (both public
and private), contractors and consultants involved with construction projects. In this study,
25 risk factors likely to occur on construction projects in Ghana were identified. These
findings provide decision making support for different types of construction organizations
by deepening their understanding of how varying professionals and their length of
experience within the industry assess the likelihood of occurrence of risk variables on
construction projects.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 9
Chapter 3
Study Area and Methodology
____________________________________________________
3.1 Description of Study Area :
The City of Ahmedabad is expanding along the major transportation corridors namely
Ahmedabad- Baroda, Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad Kalol, Ahmedabad Sanand
as well as Ahmedabad-Dehgam highway, Sarkhej Gandhinagar National highway and the
Hansol – GandhinagarHighway . Remarkable growth of institutional development as well
as recreational clubs and religious buildings and farm houses, commercial complexes
have been taken place on the periphery of the Sarkhej-Gandhinagar, N.H.No.8C Part of
N.H.8 and the Hansol-Gandhinagar Highway while in the Area beyond the Ahmedabad
Municipal Corporation limit and upto Sarkhej –Gandhinagar highway, considerable
development of multi-storied residential flats and the Luxurious bungalows have come
up.
The Sarkhej –Gandhinagar National Highway 8-C passes in the AUDA area dividing in
two parts of AUDA (I) Eastern part and (ii) Western part. The eastern part is witnessing
the concentration of lower and middle income group residential and industrial as well as
commercial activities. High Income Residential areas largely in the form of plotted
development as well as farm houses are coming up beyond Sarkhej-Gandhinagar highway
and AUDA boundary towards the Western side particularly at Bopal, Ghuma, Shelaj,
RachardaVadsar, Khatraj and other settlements.
The Sarkhej-Gandhinagar Highway, commonly known as SG road being a part of theNH
8 has the maximum number of vehicles passing through it - goods carriages aswell as
passenger vehicles. Increasing number of shopping malls have only addedto the existing
traffic and parking problems, mainly during weekends. The six kmstretch from High
Court to Karnavati Club has almost 15 malls/multiplexes andshopping arcades. It causes
heavy traffic flow, serious traffic congestion and frequenttraffic jams on the city roads
during peak hours, besides propelling the air pollutionlevel.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 10
Fig. 3.1 Key Plan of Study Area
6 Lane Grade separator facility at Thaltej-Gurudwarajunction on NH- 8C on
Gandhinagar-Sarkhej road in Gujarat State.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 11
Fig. 3.2 Top view of Two Junction
Source : Google Map
Gurudwara Junction Thaltej Junction
Fig. 3.3 Model view of Project
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 12
Fig. 3.4 Model view of Junction
Fig. 3.5 Model view of R.C.C Box Junction
3.2 Scope of Work for Propose Grade Separator :
3.2.1 :RCC Box at Gurudwara and Thaltej Junctions
The RCC Box is proposed at Junctions in length of 50 m along the NH. The inside clear
width of the Box is 2 cells of 13.40 width and has a clear height of 5.5m. The wearing
surface consisting of RCC wearing coat of 75mm thickness has been provided.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 13
3.2.2 :Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej Junction from Gandhinagar side
using Gabion Walls
The Approach to RCC Box at Thaltej junction is having a length of 275 m. The width of
approach is 27.30 m having 2 carraigeways of 12.25, median of 1m and 0.6m width of
drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls whose width will
vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this approach varies from
1.5 m to 8.2 m near the junction. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in
the approach.
3.2.3
epressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junctionusing Gabion Walls
The Depressed Highway connecting Thaltej and Gurudwara Junction is having a length of
370 m. The width of approach is 27.30 m having 2 carriageways of 12.25, median of 1m
and 0.6m width of drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls
whose width will vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this
approach is 8.2 m. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in the approach.
3.2.4 :Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara Junction from Sarkhej Side
using Gabion Walls
The Approach to RCC Box at Gurudwara junction is having a length of 605 m. The width
of approach is 27.30 m having 2 carraigeways of 12.25, median of 1m and 0.6m width of
drain on either side. The earth is retained by Rock filled Gabion Walls whose width will
vary as per the height of the Wall. The height of Gabion wall in this approach varies from
1.5 m to 8.2 m near the junction. Flexible Pavement as per required crust is provided in
the approach.
3.2.5: At Grade Slip Roads on both side
10 m wide slip roads are provided on either side of the approaches and depressed highway
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 14
for traffic moving at grade. Flexible Pavement is provided as per required crust.
3.2.6: Storm Water Drainage to dispose rainwater into nearby
waterway/lake
As the road is to be depressed the storm water drainage has to been give the due
importance. RCC covered drains are provided in the entire length of the facility both at
grade as well as in the depressed portion. This storm water drain is further extended up to
a nearby lake by means of 1000mm dia RCC NP 4 pipe drain in order to ensure proper
disposal of the rainwater. Necessary Manholes have also been included.
3.2.7: Road Furniture
Road furniture such as delineator, Signage, Thermoplastic paint etc has been considered
in the design as per requirement.
3.3 SitePhotographs :
Fig. 3.6 Excavation on Construction Site
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 15
Fig. 3.7 Gabbion Wall
Fig. 3.8 Construction of Gabbion Wall
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 16
Fig. 3.9 Survey work on Site
The project, which will see six lanes being created on either side over a stretch of 2.2
kilometres from New York towers till Pakwan restaurant, includes construction of two
underpasses — at Gobind Dham Gurudwara and Thaltej intersections — at a distance of
400 metres.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 17
3.4 Risk Management Process :
Generally two broad categories, namely, qualitative and quantitative analysis
aredistinguished in literature on risk assessment. A qualitative analysis allows the key risk
factors to be identified. Risk factors may be identified through a data-driven (quantitative)
methodology or qualitative process such as interviews, brainstorming, and checklists. It is
considered as an evaluation process which involves description of each risk and its
impacts or the subjective labelling of risk (high/medium/low) in terms of both risk impact
and probability of its occurrence.
The analysis of risks can be Quantitative or Qualitativein nature depending on the amount
of information available. Qualitative analysis focuses on identification together with
assessment of risk, and quantitative analysis focuses on the evaluation of risk.
Fig. 3.10 Risk Management Process
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 18
3.5 Risk Management Cycle :
Fig. 3.11 Risk Management Cycle
Risk management of construction projects is a complex problem. and each project has its
key features, which means that project risk management strategies should be established
according to each project's characteristics. For some construction projects, the risk
migration effects arc significant. Risk factors in one construction stage may affect other
stages, and risk events happen later can amplify the effects of previous risk events. III this
case, integrating risk factors of different project stages and managing risks based on Risk
management cycle is an appropriate way to establish risk management model.
3.6 Risk Analysis Methodology :
Risk analysis is the second stage in the Risk Management Process (RMP) where collected
data about the potential risk are analyzed. Risk analysis can be described as short listing
risks with the highest impact on the project, out of all threats mentioned in the
identification phase.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 19
In the analysis of the identified risk, two categories of methods Qualitative and
Quantitative have been developed.
The qualitative methods are most applicable when risks can be placed somewhere on a
descriptive scale from high to low level.
The quantitative methods are used to determine the probability and impact of the risks
identified and are based on numeric estimations .
Use of a qualitative approach since it is more convenient to describe the risks than to
quantitative method.
Within the quantitative and qualitative categories, a number of methods which use
different assumptions can be found, and it may be problematic to choose an appropriate
risk assessment model for a specific project. The methods should be chosen depending on
the type of risk, project scope as well as on the specific methods requirements and
criteria.
3.6.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis :
Qualitative risk analysis includes methods for prioritizing the identifiedrisks for further
action, such as risk response. The PRMT can improve theproject‘s performance
effectively by focusing on high?priority risks.
Qualitative methods for risk assessment are based on descriptive scales, and are used for
describing the likelihood and impact of a risk. These relatively simple techniques apply
when quick assessment is required in small and medium size projects. Moreover, this
method is often used in case of inadequate, limited or unavailable numerical data as well
as limited resources of time and money.
The main aim is to prioritize potential threats in order to identify those of greatest impact
on the project, and by focusing on those threats, improve the project‘s overall
performance. The complexity of scales and definitions used in this examination reflect the
project's size and its objectives. During the phases of the construction, risks may change,
and thus continuous risk assessment helps to establish actual risk status.
Limitations of qualitative methods lie in the accuracy of the data needed to provide
credible analysis. In order for the risk analysis to be of use for the project team, the
accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity of the information as well as understanding the
risk is essential
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 20
3.6.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis :
The quantitative methods are used to determine the probability and impact of the risks
identified and are based on numeric estimations.
Quantitative risk analysis is a way of numerically estimating the probabilitythat a project
will meet its cost and time objectives. Quantitative analysis isbased on a simultaneous
evaluation of the impact of all identified andquantified risks, using Monte Carlo
simulation by Crystal BallorPrimavera Risk Analysis software. The result is a probability
distribution ofthe project‘s cost and completion date based on the identified risks in
theproject.
Quantitative risk analysis simulation starts with the model of the project andeither its
project schedule or its cost estimate, depending on the objective. The degree ofuncertainty
ineach schedule activity and each line?item cost element is represented by a probability
distribution. Theprobability distribution is usually specified by determining the
optimistic, the most likely, and thepessimistic values for the activity or cost element. This
is typically called the ?3?point estimate.? Thethree points are estimated by the project
team or other subject matter experts who focus on theschedule or cost elements one at a
time.
The software produces a probability distribution ofpossible completion dates and project
costs. From this distribution, it is possible to answer suchquestions as:
How likely is the current plan to come in on schedule or on budget?
How much contingency reserve of time or money is needed to provide a sufficient degree
ofconfidence?
Which activities or line?item cost elements contribute the most to the possibility of
overrunning scheduleor cost targets can be determined by performing sensitivity analysis
with the software.
Quantitative methods need a lot of work for the analysis to be performed. The effort
should be weighed against the benefits and outcomes from the chosen method
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 21
Chapter 4
Data Collection
4.1 Traffic Data Collection :
At Thaltej Road Junction, road from Memnagar to Shilaj crosses Sarkhej-Gandhinagar
road NH-8C . The additional Gurudwara junction covered in the project is primarily a tee
junction
Traffic Surveys at this location was carried out. The results of the Same are shown in
figures below. The figures indicate average daily traffic.
The peak hour traffic during evening 16 to 20 hours and in the morning 8 to 12 hours at
Thaltej junction are as under :
Table 4.1 Details of Traffic Direction
Sr.No. Details of Traffic Direction
16 to 21 hours 8 to 12 hours
PCU PCU
i. From Thaltej Gam (on minor street)
Total Traffic 3862 6321
Average hourly traffic 772 1580
ii. From Drive-in road (on minor street)
Total Traffic 7127 3413
Average hourly traffic 1425 853
Total of both direction 10989 9734
Total of average hourly traffic 2197 2433
iii. From Gandhinagar (on major road)
Total Traffic 10801 10195
Average hourly traffic 2160 2549
iv. From Satellite (on major road)
Total Traffic 10321 6096
Average hourly traffic 2064 1524
Total of both direction 21122 16291
Total of average hourly traffic 4224 4073
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 22
The peak hour traffic during evening 16 to 20 hours and in the morning 8 to 12 hours at
Gurudwara junction are as under :
Table 4.2 Details of Traffic Direction
Sr. Details of Traffic Direction
16 to 21 hours 8 to 12 hours
PCU PCU
i. From Satelite (on major Road)
Total Traffic 15482 12137
Average hourly traffic 3096 3034
ii. From Gandhinagar side (on major road)
Total Traffic 10042 8411
Average hourly traffic 2008 2103
Total of both direction 25524 20548
Total of average overly traffic 5104 5137
Iii. From Thaltej side (on minor street)
Total Traffic 2529 1107
Average hourly traffic 506 277
iv. From Vastrapur side (on miner street )
Total Traffic 4074 2303
Average hourly traffic 809 576
Total of both direction 6603 3410
Total of average hourly traffic 1315 853
On Sundays and holidays due to very heavy traffic comes to a standstill due to very heavy
congestion due to many recreational facilities near the junction disturbing the smooth
flow of the traffic on the NH.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 23
4.2 Projected Traffic :
The base year Peak Hourly traffic of the junction has been projected for the horizon years
(up to years 2022) using the growth rates 7.5% and is presented in table shown below
Table 4.3 Projected Future Traffic
Sr.
No
Description 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
1
Average Hourly Traffic at
6421 6903 7420 7977 8575 9218
the Junction (PCU/hr)
2
Average Hourly Traffic
4244 4562 4904 5272 5668 6093
along NH (PCU/hr)
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
PCU/HR on NH
5000
PCU/HR ON JUN
4000 Column1
3000
2000
1000
0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Fig. 4.1 Projected Traffic
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 24
4.3 Traffic Movement at different junction :
Table 4.4 Details of Traffic Movement
Thaltej Intersection Gurudwara Intersection Pakwan Intersection
Movement Veh PCU Movement Veh PCU Movement Veh PCU
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
2113 1775
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
1893 1638 JB- BOPAL 649 523
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
1677 1575 Gurudwara-Sarkhej 83 64 Bopal-JB 777 607
Sarkhej-Shilaj 390 261
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
1977 1757
Gandhinagar-
Sarkhej
2231 1874
Shilaj-Sarkhej 119 99
Gandhinagar-
Gurudwara
105 82
Sarkhej-
Gandhinagar
2311 1976
Shilaj-Gurukul 294 248 Vastrapur-Sarkhej 369 285 Gandhinagar-JB 315 255
Gurukul-Shilaj 494 351
Gurudwara-
Gandhinagar
84 55 JB-Gandhinagar 349 277
Shilaj-
Ganghinagar
263 203
Vastrapur-
Gurudwara
113 78 Bopal-Sarkhej 324 276
Gandhinagar-
Shilaj
222 188 Sarkhej-gurudwara 153 141 Sarkhej-bopal 244 203
Gandhinagar-
Gurukul
428 366
Gandhinagar-
Vastrapur
282 244
Gandhinagar-
Bopal
536 468
Sarkhej-Gurukul 407 350
Gurudwara-
Vastrapur
155 103
Bopal-
Gandhinagar
444 315
Gurukul-Sarkhej 545 457
Vastrapur-
Gandhinagar
413 333 JB-Sarkhej 381 317
Gurukul-
Gandhinagar
336 319 Sarkhej-Vastrapur 262 212 Sarkhej-JB 806 674
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 25
4.4 Traffic Management Plan :
A traffic management plan is developed in order to cope with traffic disruptions that call
for actions to be taken up during construction activity on a given road or network.
The plan is prepared with objectives to regulate smooth flow of traffic, in the event of
construction activity which leads to blockage of two major intersections at Thaltej and
Gururdwara locations. The traffic management plan is prepared to:
• facilitate smooth circulation of traffic during construction period of underpasses
• minimize traffic jams
• facilitate safety to traffic during construction, and
• facilitate smooth progress of construction activity which in turn result completion of
construction of underpasses.
The traffic management plan prepared is synchronized with construction sequencing, it
has three stages.
The Traffic management plan for these stages along with proper signs giving adequate
route information and necessary circulation are provided through plans.
Fig. 4.2 Traffic Management Plan 1
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 26
Fig. 4.3 Traffic Management Plan 2
Fig. 4.4 Traffic Management Plan 3
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 27
Fig. 4.5 Traffic Management Plan 4
4.5 Accident Data :
Table 4.5 Accident Data on S.G. Highway
Sr No
Date of Accident
Place of Accident
Fetal / Injury
1
13/09/2011
Karnavati Club
Injury
2
07/01/2012
Karnavati Club
Injury
3
02/06/2012
Iscon Cross Road
Injury
4
06/06/2012
Opposite Gurudwara Junction
Injury
5
07/08/2012
Shapath-4, S.G. Highway
Fetal
6
08/08/2012
Thaltej Cross Road
Injury
7
30/08/2012
Pakwan Cross Road
Injury
8
01/09/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
9
15/11/2012
Nima Farm
Fetal
10
09/01/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
11
28/02/2012
Y.M.C.A Club
Injury
12
22/02/2013
Shapath-5, S.G. Highway
Injury
13
16/03/2013
Nima Farm
Fetal
14
28/05/2013
Nima Farm
Injury
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 28
Chapter 5
Qualitative Analysis of Problem
5.1 Risk Identification :
It is a process to acknowledge risk events and to identify characteristics of risk events for
the selected project based on the risk-related information.
The risks identified subsequent to the activities of the project are classified as follows:
? Delay in approval and permissions
? ROW Acquisition
? Traffic Diversion
? Utility shifting
? Excavation
? Testing Commissioning of materials
? Technical uncertainities
? Major / Minor Accident during Execution
? Site Communication
? Force Majeure Risks like Flood, Rain,Earthquake etc.
? Labour Agitation and Strikes
? Political
5.2 Risk Assessment :
Qualitative risk analysis for projects assigns a Risk Rating to each risk in the risk register.
Therisk ratings determine where the greatest effort should be focused in responding to the
risks. Theyfacilitate structured risk response action and resource allocation.
The three ratings for projects are:
?High? – First priority for risk response.
?Medium? – Risk response as time and resources permit.
?Low? – No risk response required at this time.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 29
5.3 Entering Assessment in to Risk Register :
Table 5.1 Risk Assessment
Column
Contents
Risk Rating
Select ?High?, ?Medium?, or ?Low? as a measure of the
importance of this risk for response action.
Rationale
Describe the reasons the PRMT selected this risk rating.
5.4 Risk Analysis :
5.4.1 “Risk” Includes Threats and Opportunities :
The concept of risk can include positive and negative impacts. This means that the word
?risk? can be used to describe uncertainties that, if they occurred, would have a negative or
harmful effect. The same word can also describe uncertainties that, if they occurred,
would be helpful. In short, there are two sides to risk: threats and opportunities.
Projects in design have the greatest potential for opportunities because the project is still
open tochanges. Risk reduction and avoidance are opportunities, as are value analyses,
constructabilityreviews, and innovations in design, construction methods, and materials. Risk
Analysis is the determination of value of risk related to a concrete situation and a
recognized threat. In project management, risk analysis is an integral part of the risk
management plan, studying the probability, the impact, and the effect of every known risk on
the project.
5.4.2 Probability and Impact Ratings :
The cost impactratings may be easier to apply if expressed in terms of dollars. The ratings
for the project serve as aconsistent frame of reference for the PRMT in assessing the risks
during the life of the project
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 30
Table 5.2 Risk Analysis of different Events
Risk
ID
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
Risk Event
Delay in approval and
permission
ROW Acquisition
Traffic Diversion
Utility shifting
Excavation
Testing/Commissioning
of materials
Technical uncertainities
Major / Minor Accidents
during Execution
Site Communication
Force Majeure Risks like
Flood, Rain, Earthquake
etc.
Labour Agitation and
Strikes
Political
Probability
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Impact
Medium
High
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Medium/
High
Risk Value
Score
Medium 9
Medium 12
High 16
Medium 9
Low 6
Low 6
Medium 12
Medium 6
Low 4
Medium 8
Medium
6
Medium
8
Probability
Ranking
Medium
Medium
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
This demonstrates how each identified risk is categorized in terms of its impact on project
and its probability of occurring. Further they are multiplied together to produce risk score
and mapped onto a risk matrix.
5.5 Performing Qualitative Risk :
The PRMT assesses each identified risk in turn and assesses:
? The rating for the probability of the risk occurring, and
? The rating of cost and time impact of each risk, should it occur.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 31
5.6 Risk Matrix :
The risk matrix is used to determine the importance of each risk impact based on
theprobability and impact ratings. Each word descriptor of the rating has an associated
number; theproduct of the probability number and impact number defines the risk score.
Table 5.3 Risk Matrix
V.HIGH
5 10 15 20 25
5
HIGH
4 8 12 16 20
4
MEDIUM
3 6 9 12 15
3
LOW
2 4 6
8
10
2
V.LOW
1 2 3 4 5
1
V.LOW LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH
1 2 3 4 5
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 32
The risk score thus obtained was then sorted in an increasing order to find the risks which
caused maximum threat for the respondents. These were further divided into categories
based on the risk score. This process is termed as risk categorization.
The scale followed for risk categorization is shown below:
Table 5.4 Risk Score
Risk
Score
Low
1-5
Modium
6-14
High
15-++
5.7 Risk categorization :
Table 5.5 Risk Categorization
Risk
ID
Risk Event Score
Categorization
according to Score
9 Site Communication 4 Low
5 Excavation 6 Medium
6 Testing/Commissioning of materials 6 Medium
8
Major / Minor Accidents during
Execution
6 Medium
11 Labor Agitation and Strikes 6 Medium
10
Force Majeure Risks like Flood,
Rain, Earthquake etc.
8 Medium
12 Political 8 Medium
4 Utility shifting 9 Medium
1 Delay in approval and permission 9 Medium
2 ROW Acquisition 12 Medium
7 Technical uncertainities 12 Medium
3 Traffic Diversion 16 High
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 33
Entering Risk Responses into the Risk Register
Sr.
No
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
1
Delay in
approval &
permission
Dealy
in time
Threat Time Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Accept
Attempt to
approval for
higher.
Authority
Govern-
ment
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
2
ROW
acquisiion
risk
Dealy
in time
Threat Time Medium High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Transfer
Consultation
/Concurrenc
e
Govern-
ment
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
3
Risk in
traffic
diversion
work
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Time High High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Traffic
diversion
plans
Alternatives
Govern-
ment
H X
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 34
Sr
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
4
Risk in
utility
shifting
works
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Cost Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Prior notice
before
Commencin
g work for
utility
shifting
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
5
Risk in
Exacvation
work
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Time Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Contract
award
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
6
Political
Risks
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Scope Low
Mediu
m/High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Accept/
Transfer
Govern-
ment
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 35
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
7
Testing
Commission
ing of works
Cost Threat Quality Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
8
Geo-
Technical
Risk
Cost
Increas
e
Threat Cost Medium
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Accept
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
9
Technical
UncertainIti
es
Delay
in
Time
Threat Time Medium High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate Contract
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 36
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
10
Major/Mino
r Accidents
during
execution
Threat Cost Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Precautive
safety
measures
Contract
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
11
Site
Communica
tion
Threat Cost Low Low
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
12
Force
measure
risk like
flood, rain ,
earthquake
etc
Cost/
Time
Threat Cost Low High
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Contract
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 37
Sr.
No
.
RISK IDENTIFICATION QUALITY RISK ASSESSMENT RISK RESPONSE PLAN MONITORING & CONTROL
RISK EVENT EFFECT
THREAT/
OPPOR -
TUNITY
PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE
PROBABI-
LITY
IMPACT RISK MATRIX
RESPONSE
STRATEGY
RESPONSE
ACTION
RESPONSIBLE
ENTITY
INTERVAL
OR
MILESTONE
CHECK
13
Labour
Agitation &
Strikes
Threat Cost Low
Mediu
m
P
R
O
B
A
B
I
L
I
T
Y
VH
Mitigate
Project
Manager
H
M
L X
VL
VL L M H VH
IMPACT
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 38
Table 5.6 Response towards Risk
Risk
Response
Responsible
Response
Risk Event
ID
Strategy
Entity
Actions
01
Delay in approval and
permission
Accept
Government
Efforts for early
approval from the
Authority
02
ROW Acquisition
Accept
Government
Legal Action/
Consultation
03
Traffic Diversion
Mitigate
Government
Traffic diversion
plans/
Alternatives
04
Utility shifting
Mitigate
Government
Issuing Prior
Notice before
commencing the
work/Legal
actions
Notification
05
Excavation
Mitigate
Contractor
Methodology
adoption/
Resource
allocation-
machinery/
manpower
06
Testing/Commissioning
of materials
Mitigate
Contractor
Quality Control
07
Technical uncertainities
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Project
Management /
Planning for each
activity/ resource
requirement
08
Major / Minor Accidents
during Execution
Mitigate
Contractor
Precautive Safety
Measures
09
Site Communication
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Proper
coordination and
Information
sharing
10
Force Majeure Risks like
Flood, Rain, Earthquake
etc.
Accept
Contractor
Early action for
restoration
11
Labor Agitation and
Strikes
Mitigate
Contractor/
Project Manager
Relative
approach/ Good
communication
12
Political
Mitigate
Accept/Avoid
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 39
5.8 Risk Monitoring :
Continuous monitoring by the project risk manager and the project team ensures that new
and changingrisks are detected and managed and that risk response actions are
implemented and effective. Riskmonitoring continues for the life of the project.
Risk monitoring and control keeps track of the identified risks, residual risks,and new
risks. It also monitors the execution of planned strategies for theidentified risks and
evaluates their effectiveness.
Risk monitoring and control continues for the life of the project. The list ofproject risks
changes as the project matures, new risks develop, oranticipated risks disappear. Risk
ratings and prioritizations can also changeduring the project lifecycle.
Typically, during project execution, risk meetings should be held regularly toupdate the
status of risks in the risk register, and add new risks. Periodic project risk reviews repeat
theprocess of identification, analysis, and response planning.
If an unanticipated risk emerges, or a risk‘s impact is greater than expected, the planned
response maynot be adequate. The project manager and the PRMT should perform
additional responses to controlthe risk.
5.9 Response Towards Risk :
Risk response is the process of developing strategic options, and determining actions, to
enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project‘s objectives. A project team
member is assigned to take responsibility for each risk response. This process ensures that
each risk requiring a response has an owner monitoring the responses, although the owner
may delegate implementation of a response to someone else.
Avoid :Risk can be avoided by removing the cause of the risk or executing the project in
a different way while still aiming to achieve project objectives. Not all risks can be
avoided or eliminated, and for others, this approach may be too expensive or
time?consuming. However, this should be the first strategy considered.
Transfer :Transferring risk involves finding another party who is willing to take
responsibility for its management, and who will bear the liability of the risk should it
occur. The aim is to ensure that the risk is owned and managed by the party best able to
deal with it effectively. Risk transfer usually involves payment of a premium, and the
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 40
cost?effectiveness of this must be considered when deciding whether to adopt a transfer
strategy
Mitigate :Risk mitigation reduces the probability and/or impact of an adverse risk event
to an acceptable threshold. Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of
a risk is often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred.
Risk mitigation may require resources or time and thus presents a tradeoff between doing
nothing versus the cost of mitigating the risk.
Acceptance :This strategy is adopted when it is not possible or practical to respond to the
risk by the other strategies, or a response is not warranted by the importance of the risk.
When the project manager and the project team decide to accept a risk, they are agreeing
to address the risk if and when it occurs. A contingency plan, workaround plan and/or
contingency reserve may be developed for that eventuality.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 41
Chapter 6
Conclusion
The risks involved during the construction of the project if not treated or mitigated
properly, the probability of successful completion of the project within the stipulated time
and cost frame will reduce. This will have a direct impact on project.
A major limitation for analysis is that the entire process being probabilistic, the outcome
of the analysis is largely dependent on the opinion of the likelihood and impact of the
identified risks. Also any sort of misinformation will result in inexact results.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 42
References
Project Risk Management Handbook , First edition - June 26, 2003
1. Diekmann, J.E. and Featherman, W.D. (1998) ?Assessing Cost Uncertainty: Lessons
From Environmental Restoration Projects? Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, Vol. 124(6), pp.445 – 451
2. Dey, P.K. (2001) ?Integrated Project Management in Indian Petroleum Industry?
NICMAR Journal of Construction Management, Vol. XVI, pp. 1 – 34
3. Jannadi, O.A. and Almishari, S. (2003) ?Risk Assessment in Construction? Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 129(5), pp. 492-500
4. Nehru, R. and Vaid, K.N. (2003) Construction Project Management, NICMAR
Publication, Mumbai
5. Mulholland, B. and Christan, J.(1999) ?Risk Assessment in Construction Schedules?
Journal of Construction Engineering & Management, Vol. 125(1), pp.8 – 15
6. Chong, Y.Y. and Brown, E.M. (2002) Managing Project Risk: Business
RiskManagement for Project Leaders, Pearson Education, London
7. Nasir, D., McCabe, B. and Hartono, L. (2003) ?Evaluating Risk in Construction –
Schedule Model (ERIC-S): Constr- uction Schedule Risk Model? Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 129(5), pp. 518-527
8. Reilly, J. and Brown, J. (2004) “Managing and Control of Cost and Risk for Tunneling
and Infrastructure Projects” Proceedings of International Tunneling Conference,
Singapore,pp.703 -712
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 43
9. Abdou, O.A. (1996) Managing Construction Risks, Journal of Architectural
Engineering, 2(1), 3-10
10. Ahmed, S.M., Ahmad, R. and Saram, D.D. (1999) Risk Management Trends in the
Hong Kong Construction Industry: a Comparison of Contractors and Owners
Perceptions,Engineering, Construction and Architectural Managemen, 6(3), 225-23
11. Agyakwa-Baah, A and Chileshe, N (2010) Construction professionals perception of
risk assesssment and management practices: does length of service in construction
industry matter.
12. Ossama A. Abdou. (1996). Managing construction risks. journal of architectural
engineering ,24, pp 349–357
13. Cheng Siew Gohand Hamzah Abdul-Rahman.(2001), Managing construction projects
using the advanced programmatic risk analysis and management model.Journal of
Construction Engineering and Management, 135, 572-580.
14. Ming-Teh Wang, M. and Hui-Yu Chou. (2003). Risk allocation and risk handling of
highway projects in Taiwan. journal of management in engineering, 19, pp 60–68
15. Patrick. X.W. Zou, and Dr Guomin Zhang. (2000). Identifying key risks in
construction Projects life cycle and stakeholder perspectives. College of Architecture
and Civil Engineering18, pp 369–383.
16. Sukulpat Khumpaisal. (2003). Risks in the construction project Procurement process
and the mitigation methods. Journal of Architectural /Planning Research and Studies
21, pp 136–140.
17. S. Mohamed and J. Abu Mosa. (2008).Risk management in building projects in
palestine: contractors’ perspective, Emirates Journal for Engineering Research,, 12, 29-
44.
MIT, PUNE PGDICM
Page 44
18. Low Sui Pheng and Liu Junying. (2009). External risk management practices of
chinese construction firms in singapore, Journal of Civil Engineering, 13(2), 85-95.
doc_195074986.pdf