JP Morgan Risk Metrics Model

abhishreshthaa

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JP Morgan Risk Metrics Model

Idea is to determine the daily earnings at risk = dollar value of position × price sensitivity × potential adverse move in yield

Example of 7-year zero-coupon bonds
Price volatility = (-MD)  (Potential adverse change in yield)
= (-6.527)  (0.00165) = -1.077%
MD = D/(1+R)
If the standard deviation is 10 basis points, this corresponds to 16.5 basis points. Concern is that yields will rise. Probability of yield increases greater than 16.5 basis points is 5%.
DEAR = Market value of position  (Price volatility)
= ($1,000,000)  (.01077) = $10,770

Eg:

To calculate the potential loss for more than one day:
Market value at risk (VAR) = DEAR × N

Example:
For a five-day period,
VAR = $10,770 × 5 = $24,082
 
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